The Five Numbers That Tell You If a Mobile Home Park Deal Is Real

Forget every “evaluation framework” you’ve seen online. Five numbers tell you most of what you need to know about an MHP. If you can answer them about a deal, you can decide within an hour whether it’s worth pursuing.

1. Occupancy

Physical occupancy (homes actually on lots) and economic occupancy (lots actually paying). Both matter, and they’re not always the same number.

Stabilized agency-quality parks need to be 85%+ on both. Below 85%, you’re in value-add territory — which can still be a great deal, but the financing path changes (bridge debt instead of agency) and the underwriting risk goes up.

National MHP occupancy is currently around 94%, so a park well below that needs an explanation. Why is it under-occupied? Is it the market, the management, the infrastructure, or the rent? The answer determines whether the gap is upside or a warning.

2. Pad count × lot rent = gross potential income

Multiply pad count by current lot rent. That’s your gross potential lot-rent income.

Then ask the question that actually matters: how does in-place lot rent compare to market? If the seller is 30% below market and there are no rent controls, that’s real upside. If they’re already at market, you’re paying for what they’ve already built.

Look at the local market rents at comparable parks. Pull the market data, not just the seller’s pitch. A park selling at “below-market rents” that turn out to be at-market rents is just a park.

3. The trailing 12-month operating statement (T-12)

The single most important document in the file. Real expenses, month by month, for the prior 12 months. Then re-underwrite them yourself.

Sellers almost always understate expenses. They self-manage (no management fee), defer maintenance (no reserves), and underwrite the property tax bill at the old assessed value (which resets when you buy). Your lender will normalize all of this. You should too, before you sign the contract.

Plan on a 35–45% expense ratio for stabilized parks once you add:

Property management fee (4–5% of effective gross income, even if you self-manage — the lender will impute it)
Maintenance reserves (typically $50 per pad per year minimum)
Realistic property taxes adjusted for the new sale price
Market-rate insurance (not the seller’s grandfathered policy)
Utility expenses normalized against the rent roll

If the seller’s expense ratio is 22%, that’s not real. Build the real number, then run the deal on that.

4. POH ratio

What percentage of the homes are owned by the park?

Under 15%: Clean. Agency-eligible.
15–25%: Workable. Still agency-eligible at most lenders.
25–35%: Pushes you toward the agency ceiling. Fannie Mae generally caps tenant-occupied (POH) homes at 35%; many lenders prefer closer to 25%.
Over 35%: Knocks you out of agency financing. You’re in bridge or specialty product territory until you convert POH to TOH and refinance.

Know this number before you write an offer. A park that looks like a 6% cap rate on paper but doesn’t qualify for agency debt is a different investment than the same park at agency leverage. The financing math changes the return.

5. Utility setup

The least glamorous number on this list, the most operationally important.

City water, city sewer, billed back to residents: Ideal. Predictable expenses, lender-friendly.
City utilities, master-metered, park paying: A value-add opportunity. Install submeters, bill back, capture significant savings.
Private well and septic: Operational complexity, capital reserves required, sharper eye from lenders. Not a deal-killer but priced in.
Mix of private and municipal: Possible if the park has expanded over time. Map it out before you buy.

A note on cap rate

You’ll notice cap rate isn’t on this list. That’s intentional. Cap rate is the result of these five numbers; it’s not the driver.

A 9% cap rate on a park with 50% POH, private septic, and a declining tenant base is not a deal — it’s a problem priced correctly. A 5.5% cap rate on a clean stabilized park with rent that’s 20% below market and a path to refinance into agency debt is a great deal.

For context: in 2026, premium institutional-quality MHP communities are trading at 4–5% cap rates, stabilized assets at 5–7%, value-add at 7–9%, and turnaround parks at 9–12%+. The middle of the market (Northmarq’s H1 2025 data) is around 5.9% with a median price of about $45,500 per space.

The cap rate is where you start the conversation, not where you end it.

Putting it together

When a broker sends you a deal, your first move should be a one-page underwriting summary with these five numbers and your normalized T-12. If the deal pencils after honest normalization, dig in. If it doesn’t, pass.

If you want a second set of eyes on a specific deal, send me the address and the rent roll. I’ll come back with the lender’s view of how those five numbers actually underwrite.

→ Next: Mobile Home Park Due Diligence: Where Deals Actually Die

Amy Brown · NMLS #2310281 · NEXA Lending. Commercial financing available nationwide; residential licensure in MD and FL. Educational guidance only; not a commitment to lend. Terms, rates, and program availability subject to change.